Risk Assessment on the likelihood of B.canis incursion into Great Britain from another country

17 September 2025

The Government has published a qualitative risk assessment on the likelihood of Brucella canis incursion into Great Britain (GB) from any country worldwide, and the potential for subsequent transmission among susceptible animal populations, assessing the risk of dogs or foxes in GB becoming infected with B. canis through the global movement of dogs.

The risk assessment concluded that the annual likelihood of at least one infected dog entering GB was high for dogs entering from many countries worldwide but varied depending on the country of origin. The annual likelihood of further cases in GB was considered to be high for breeding animals and low for all other dogs. However, there was high uncertainty throughout the risk assessment due to the lack of reliable data.

The risk assessment was commissioned to address the concerns of rising B. canis detections in imported dogs, and the ongoing risks. There was specific interest in understanding which animals are the highest risk for importing and subsequently transmitting B. canis to either dogs or foxes resident in GB, particularly comparing the risk between dogs entering via the commercial or non-commercial route and neutered versus unneutered dogs.

Risk assessment

Evidence of B. canis prevalence on an individual country level is limited, making it difficult to assess the risk of importing infected dogs, however the following assessments have been made:

• The annual likelihood that at least one infected dog would enter GB via the commercial route was considered to be very low from New Zealand and Australia and high for all other countries.
• The annual likelihood that an infected pet dog would enter GB for a short visit before travelling back to their home country was negligible for New Zealand and Australia, low for Western Europe and medium for all other countries.
• The annual likelihood that an infected pet dog from GB would become infected while travelling abroad was very low.
• The likelihood of onward transmission of infection to a naïve dog in GB was estimated to be high for transmission to offspring of an infected dog, medium for breeding mates of an infected dog, and low for transmission to all other dogs through environmental contamination.
• The likelihood of transmission to wildlife through environmental contamination was very low.

However, key evidence gaps were identified, including the prevalence of B. canis in individual countries, the true country of origin of dogs entering GB, and the frequency with which a pet dog from GB would mate with an infected dog abroad and vice versa.

Transmission between wildlife and the domestic dog was also uncertain. B. canis is exotic to Great Britain and there are currently no surveillance programmes in place in wildlife populations, therefore there will be a delay between the first transmission of the disease to wildlife and the disease being detected.

Consequences

The consequence assessment aimed to identify biological, environmental and economic consequences associated with the entry, establishment and spread of the hazard, together with an estimate of their likely magnitude and likelihood of occurrence. It covers the likelihood of spread beyond the initial case, and the impact within each population up to national level. The impact depends on the number of other dogs that an infected dog lives with, and therefore the likely size of an outbreak. If an infected, unneutered dog lives with multiple (at least 5) other dogs than the national impact is likely to be moderate. The impact of a case imported in a neutered dog or a dog not in close proximity to other dogs, is likely to be minor. If infection occurs in foxes, the impact is assessed as moderate.

Access the risk assessment

The risk assessment is accessible on the Government website here: Risk assessment: Brucella canis to Great Britain from any country worldwide

Previous APHA Information

APHA’s Summary Information Sheet (SIS) can be accessed here: Canine brucellosis: general information for veterinary staff

Additional information and resources

BSAVA has collated key resources on B.canis into one easily accessible area, our Brucella canis Hub, which covers information from the BSAVA, other organisations and Government Departments: https://www.bsavalibrary.com/pages/brucella-canis

Previous information on B canis which includes the UKHSA’s HAIRS Risk Assessment covering zoonotic potential and APHA’s FAQs is available here https://www.bsava.com/article/brucella-canis-government-updates/

Access to the BSAVA Scientific Information Document (SID) is available here https://www.bsava.com/article/brucella-canis-bsava-scientific-information-document/